oluwatosin oyeniyi BISSAU, Guinea-Bissau — Voters in Guinea-Bissau have approved a new constitution that significantly strengthens the powers of the presidency, reshaping the country’s political system just months before elections intended to return the West African nation to civilian rule.
The National Electoral Commission said 70% of voters backed the constitutional changes, while 30% voted against them. About 544,060 people participated, representing nearly 60% of registered voters.
The referendum was held on August 30, less than 10 months after the military seized power following a disputed presidential election. The transitional authorities have scheduled presidential elections for December 6, presenting the constitutional process as part of a transition back to elected government.
However, the referendum has already raised questions about whether Guinea-Bissau is genuinely returning to democratic rule or simply creating a new political system that gives the executive excessive power.
President gains greater control
The most significant change is the redistribution of executive authority.
Under Guinea-Bissau’s existing semi-presidential system, the president shares executive responsibilities with the prime minister. The legislature plays an important role in the appointment of the prime minister, who then forms the cabinet.
The new constitution changes that balance.
The president will be able to appoint and dismiss the prime minister and cabinet, create or abolish government ministries and dissolve parliament in circumstances described as a grave political crisis.
Supporters of the reform argue that the previous system created repeated clashes between presidents and prime ministers and contributed to political instability.
Military authorities have presented a stronger presidency as a way to create clearer leadership and prevent institutional deadlock.
Critics see a different danger: concentrating too much power in one office could weaken parliamentary oversight and make future abuses of power easier.
Parliament will also become smaller
The constitutional changes extend beyond the presidency.
The number of seats in parliament will fall from 102 to 65, while the number of electoral constituencies will be reduced from 29 to 12.
The government argues that a smaller legislature could make parliamentary debate more efficient.
Opponents, however, worry that reducing representation could weaken the ability of different communities and political interests to influence national policy.
The constitution also introduces a new eligibility requirement for presidential candidates: they must have lived continuously in Guinea-Bissau for the previous five years.
That provision could become particularly important in a country where political figures have spent periods abroad because of instability and political conflict.
Opposition boycotted the referendum
The vote was not universally accepted by the political opposition.
Guinea-Bissau’s main opposition party, the African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC), called for a boycott, arguing that the process lacked adequate political and institutional safeguards.
PAIGC leader Domingos Simões Pereira accused supporters of the referendum of attempting to undermine democracy.
Reports from polling stations also indicated relatively low participation in parts of the capital, while some residents said they did not fully understand the purpose of the referendum.
That creates an important distinction between electoral approval and political legitimacy.
Although 70% of participating voters backed the constitution, the opposition’s boycott and concerns over the referendum process mean that the result is unlikely to end the country’s political divisions.
A difficult transition after another coup
Guinea-Bissau has a long history of political instability and military intervention.
The latest coup occurred in November 2025, when soldiers seized power as authorities were dealing with a disputed presidential election. The military suspended the electoral process and established a transitional government.
The referendum is therefore taking place in an unusual environment: a military government is overseeing constitutional reforms that will determine the rules for the civilian government expected to follow it.
That raises questions about who should have the authority to redesign the country’s political system.
The Africa Center for Strategic Studies has warned that the reforms could consolidate executive power and reverse earlier efforts to strengthen power-sharing between the presidency and government.
What the new constitution means for Guinea-Bissau
The immediate challenge will be ensuring that the new system does not create another cycle of political confrontation.
Guinea-Bissau has repeatedly struggled with disputes between political institutions and military intervention. Giving the presidency greater authority could reduce conflicts between the president and prime minister, but it could also make political crises more dangerous if institutional checks are too weak.
The country therefore needs strong safeguards around the new presidential powers.
First, parliament must retain meaningful oversight. A smaller legislature should not become a weaker legislature.
Second, the judiciary must remain independent. Courts should be able to review executive decisions without political interference.
Third, the December elections must be credible and competitive. Opposition parties should be able to campaign freely, while electoral institutions must operate independently of the military and executive authorities.
Finally, the military should return fully to the barracks. A successful democratic transition requires elected civilian institutions to control the country’s political system and security forces.
The December election will be the real test
The referendum gives Guinea-Bissau a new constitutional framework, but it does not resolve the country’s deeper political problems.
The decisive test will come in December, when voters are expected to elect a new president and legislature.
If the election is transparent and competitive, the new constitution could provide a framework for political stability.
If the process is contested or the new presidential powers are used to suppress opposition, however, the referendum could deepen rather than resolve Guinea-Bissau’s crisis.
For a country emerging from another military takeover, the priority should be building institutions that can survive changes in leadership — not simply creating a stronger presidency.
The December elections will show whether Guinea-Bissau’s latest constitutional experiment becomes a pathway back to civilian democracy or another chapter in its long struggle with concentrated political power and military intervention.
