oluwatosin oyeniyi ADDIS ABABA, Ethiopia — Rising tensions in Ethiopia’s Tigray region are putting renewed pressure on the 2022 Pretoria peace agreement, raising fears that one of Africa’s most devastating recent conflicts could once again descend into large-scale violence.
The agreement, signed in November 2022 between Ethiopia’s federal government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), ended the two-year Tigray war and established a permanent cessation of hostilities. But several of the political and territorial disputes that contributed to the conflict have remained unresolved.
Human Rights Watch says tensions have been building for more than a year and are now testing the ability of the African Union (AU) to turn its early-warning systems into effective preventive action. The organisation has warned that the risk of renewed conflict requires urgent diplomatic engagement rather than waiting for violence to escalate.
A fragile peace
The Pretoria agreement brought an end to a war that caused enormous loss of life and humanitarian suffering.
However, peace did not resolve every underlying dispute.
Questions surrounding contested territories, the return of displaced people, political authority in Tigray and the future of armed forces have continued to generate friction.
The situation became more concerning in 2026 when clashes involving Ethiopian federal forces and Tigrayan forces represented a serious breach of the peace agreement. The renewed violence has reinforced fears that unresolved political disagreements could once again develop into armed confrontation.
The deterioration also comes amid internal political tensions within Tigray, adding another layer of uncertainty to an already fragile security environment.
Why the AU is under pressure
The crisis is particularly important for the African Union because the organisation played a central role in mediating the Pretoria negotiations.
The AU’s success in helping end the Tigray war was widely regarded as an important example of African-led conflict resolution.
But peace agreements are only as strong as their implementation.
The current situation therefore raises a difficult question: can the AU intervene early enough to prevent political tensions from becoming another war?
The AU has continued to strengthen its continental early-warning architecture. In August, its Peace and Security Council validated a new Trigger Model for Early Warning and Response designed to connect identifiable risks with timely preventive action.
The Tigray situation provides a crucial test of whether such mechanisms can move beyond identifying danger to producing concrete diplomatic action.
The cost of another conflict
A return to major fighting would have consequences far beyond Tigray.
The previous war created a severe humanitarian crisis, displaced large numbers of people and destroyed infrastructure and livelihoods.
Another conflict could reverse the limited progress made since the ceasefire and deepen instability across northern Ethiopia.
It could also increase tensions involving neighbouring Eritrea and other regional actors, making a local political dispute considerably harder to contain.
For communities that have already experienced years of violence, renewed fighting would carry a particularly heavy human cost.
Prevention must come before escalation
The priority should now be to preserve the ceasefire and address unresolved issues through political dialogue.
The AU, Ethiopian federal government and Tigrayan authorities should strengthen direct communication channels and establish clear mechanisms for investigating and de-escalating security incidents.
Outstanding issues under the Pretoria agreement also need sustained attention, particularly questions surrounding disputed territories, displaced populations, political representation and security arrangements.
Independent monitoring can help establish facts when allegations of violations emerge and prevent misinformation from driving further escalation.
The international community can support this process through diplomatic engagement and humanitarian assistance rather than waiting for another major outbreak of violence.
A test of African conflict prevention
Tigray is now testing more than Ethiopia’s commitment to peace.
It is also testing the credibility of African conflict-prevention institutions.
The Pretoria agreement demonstrated that African diplomacy can help end a devastating war. The next challenge is proving that the same diplomatic architecture can prevent that war from returning.
For Ethiopia, maintaining peace will require political compromise and a willingness to address grievances that the ceasefire alone could not resolve.
For the AU, the lesson is equally clear: early warning has value only when it is followed by early action.
The window to prevent renewed conflict may still be open. The challenge is ensuring that diplomacy moves quickly enough before tensions close it.
