oluwatosin oyeniyi BISSAU, Guinea-Bissau — Guinea-Bissau’s ousted former president Umaro Sissoco Embalo says he will return to the country and contest the presidential election scheduled for December 6, setting up a potentially significant political test as the West African nation prepares to end its military-led transition.
Embalo, who has been living in exile since the military seized power in November 2025, told AFP on Monday that he “will be a candidate in the presidential election.” He did not specify when he plans to return.
The announcement comes less than three months before presidential and legislative elections that the junta says will restore civilian rule.
Coup disrupted the previous election
Guinea-Bissau’s military overthrew Embalo on November 26, 2025, just one day before provisional results from presidential and legislative elections were due to be announced.
The electoral process was suspended, while the military installed General Horta N’Tam as transitional president. The junta said its intervention was necessary to prevent further instability and cited an alleged plot involving drug traffickers to destabilise the country.
The circumstances surrounding the coup remain politically contested. Embalo and his main challenger, Fernando Dias, had both claimed victory in the November election before the military intervened.
Embalo subsequently left the country and has remained outside Guinea-Bissau during the transition.
Embalo says he will return
His planned return introduces a new variable into a transition already marked by political uncertainty.
Embalo’s supporters have reportedly been discussing plans for his return, while Horta N’Tam recently indicated that the former president would be free to come back if he wished.
Political analysts cited by AFP said there was no apparent legal provision preventing Embalo from returning, noting that he was removed from office by a coup rather than voluntarily relinquishing power.
Whether his return will be accompanied by specific security or political arrangements remains unclear.
His candidacy could also reopen questions surrounding the unresolved November election, whose results were never formally announced after the military suspended the process.
December election is meant to restore civilian rule
The junta has scheduled presidential and legislative elections for December 6, 2026.
The transitional authorities say the election will mark the end of the military-led transition and the restoration of constitutional civilian government. The timetable was formally announced in January, with the transitional charter barring Horta N’Tam and the interim prime minister from contesting the election.
The elections will therefore be closely watched for evidence that the transition is moving toward civilian rule and an electoral process accepted by competing political forces.
The participation of major political figures, including Embalo, could be an important part of that process.
A new constitutional framework
The election will take place under a significantly altered constitutional framework.
In August, voters approved constitutional changes that strengthen the powers of the presidency and reduce the size of parliament from 102 to 65 seats. The referendum was organised during the military transition and was opposed by sections of the opposition, which urged voters to boycott it.
The new system could therefore give the next president greater authority than under the previous constitutional arrangement.
That makes the December vote particularly significant for the balance between the presidency, parliament and government institutions.
Regional concerns remain
Guinea-Bissau has experienced repeated political crises and military interventions since independence from Portugal in 1974. The country has also faced longstanding economic difficulties and concerns over its role as a transit point for international drug trafficking.
The November coup prompted condemnation from regional and continental institutions, including the African Union and ECOWAS, which have pushed for a return to constitutional governance.
ECOWAS has previously called for a short and transparent transition and the release of political opponents detained following the coup.
The December election will therefore have implications beyond Guinea-Bissau’s borders, particularly for West Africa’s wider struggle with military takeovers and constitutional instability.
What comes next
Embalo’s announcement does not by itself resolve the political questions surrounding the December election.
The authorities will have to determine how returning political figures will participate, while electoral institutions will need to establish procedures that can command confidence among competing parties and voters.
There are also questions about how the new constitution will operate in practice and whether the military will fully withdraw from political decision-making once an elected government takes office.
For Embalo, returning to Guinea-Bissau would mark a major shift after almost a year in exile.
For the country, the larger test will be whether the December election can provide a credible path from military rule back to civilian government and whether the competing political forces accept the outcome.
