Viewpoints Africa If a third world war breaks out, Africa will feel it long before it fires a shot.
Modern global wars rarely begin with formal declarations. They unfold through disrupted shipping lanes, cyber intrusions, food shortages, capital flight and proxy contests far from any battlefield. Distance offers no immunity. Neutrality offers no shield. In a tightly linked world, Africa would absorb the shock early and unevenly, whether it chose to engage or not.
Yet the more urgent question is not about war at all. It is about preparedness. There is a set of actions Africa needs to take that would strengthen the continent whether a global conflict comes or not. These are not emergency measures. They are overdue corrections to structural weaknesses.
Taken together, they form a no-regrets playbook.
Start by Trading With Itself
Africa’s exposure begins with dependence. Roughly 85 percent of the continent’s wheat is imported. More than 90 percent of African trade moves by sea through global chokepoints. Even major oil producers import large volumes of refined fuel.
The most strategic economic shift Africa can make is to deepen intra African trade. Intra African trade still accounts for less than 20 percent of the continent’s total trade, compared with about 60 percent in Europe and close to 40 percent in North America. The African Continental Free Trade Area should therefore be treated not as a development slogan, but as a strategic asset.
Reducing border delays, harmonizing standards and prioritizing cross border transport corridors would keep food, medicine and energy moving even when global supply chains fracture. This is feasible. Africa holds around 60 percent of the world’s uncultivated arable land, yet spends tens of billions of dollars each year importing food. Regional grain reserves, fertilizer production hubs and mechanized farming partnerships are not ideological projects. They are insurance policies.
In stable times, they create jobs and reduce inflation. In crises, they keep societies fed and governments standing.
Treat Security as Collective, Not Fragmented
Africa’s greatest strategic weakness is not a lack of ideas or spending. It is the habit of planning nationally for problems that arrive continentally.
The continent spends more than $50 billion a year on defense, yet most of it is fragmented across national procurement, separate doctrines and limited interoperability. Terrorism, weapons trafficking, piracy and cybercrime do not respect borders. African responses too often do.
This must change. Joint planning, shared intelligence and interoperable training need to move from aspiration to routine practice. The African Standby Force should function as intended, with real logistics, command structures and rapid deployment capability. Maritime cooperation in the Gulf of Guinea, the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean should focus on protecting trade routes, energy flows and the undersea cables that carry Africa’s data.
Defense investment should also evolve. Rather than duplicative procurement, African states should collaborate on dual use capabilities such as drones, secure communications, satellite imagery and cyber defense. These tools strengthen autonomy without signaling aggression.
Integration Without Surrendering Sovereignty
Africa does not need to invent a security model from scratch. It already has one.
The African Union’s peace and security architecture was designed to enable collective action while preserving national sovereignty, not unlike the European Union’s approach to defense coordination. National armies remain national. Decisions remain political. Cooperation is triggered by consent and clear mandates.
The problem has not been design. It has been political will, funding and operational seriousness. Used properly, this framework allows Africa to act together without dissolving the authority of its states.
Build Shock Absorbers Before the Shock
Modern wars are fought through balance sheets as much as battlefields. Africa has repeatedly seen how external shocks translate into inflation, currency collapse and debt distress.
Resilience starts with diversification. No African economy should be overly dependent on a single external market, lender or security partner. Regional financial safety nets, reserve pooling and payment systems would reduce exposure to sanctions and capital freezes.
Critical infrastructure deserves equal scrutiny. Ports, power grids, telecom networks and data centers should be treated as strategic assets, governed by clear rules on ownership, redundancy and risk management.
In calm periods, these measures support growth. Under stress, they prevent cascading failure.
Keep the State Functioning Under Pressure
Perhaps Africa’s least discussed vulnerability is continuity of government. Modern conflicts and coercive campaigns often target leadership, courts, financial systems and communications first.
Every serious state needs tested plans for leadership succession, emergency authority, alternative seats of government and secure data hosting. Central banks, hospitals and border agencies must be able to operate even if capitals are immobilized or networks disrupted.
This is not paranoia. It is the minimum standard of governance in an era of disruption. Strong continuity planning strengthens democracy in ordinary times. In extraordinary ones, it prevents chaos.
Speak With One Voice or Be Spoken For
Africa’s diplomatic influence is diluted less by lack of legitimacy than by lack of coordination. Fragmented responses allow stronger powers to negotiate pressure points country by country.
Unified crisis diplomacy through the African Union, shared norms on foreign military presence and coordinated positions at global institutions would change the calculus. With more than 1.4 billion people, vast markets and critical minerals essential to modern industry, Africa has leverage. It simply uses it inconsistently.
Collective action secures better terms in peace. It deters coercion in crisis.
Secure the Digital and Social Foundations
Cyberattacks and disinformation are now routine instruments of geopolitical pressure. Africa’s connectivity depends on a small number of undersea cables, disruptions to which have already caused multi country outages.
Hardening networks, deepening regional cyber cooperation and investing in digital skills are no longer optional. Nor is information resilience. Independent journalism and public trust are frontline defenses against manipulation.
A strategy also fails without social cohesion. Youth unemployment, weak institutions and distrust in government create openings for instability long before any external shock arrives. Investment in skills, employment, accountability and inclusive security institutions is therefore not soft policy. It is a hard security requirement.
Preparation Is the Point
A third world war may come. It may not. Either way, Africa cannot afford strategic drift.
Deeper intra African trade, integrated security, economic shock absorbers, continuity planning, digital protection and coordinated diplomacy would strengthen Africa under any global scenario. If war comes, these steps reduce exposure. If it does not, they accelerate development and sovereignty.
The real choice before Africa is not whether the world will fracture again. It is whether preparation will be deliberate, or forced upon the continent by crisis.
