Viewpoints Africa Another coup attempt in Guinea Bissau. Another wave of condemnations from regional blocs and international partners. Another reminder that Africa remains trapped in a cycle it claims to oppose but has failed to dismantle.
The instinctive response is to blame the military. This is convenient, but it is incomplete. Coups do not emerge in political ecosystems that work. They are symptoms of governance failures that fester until constitutional order loses credibility among the very citizens meant to defend it.
Across the continent, democracy has become increasingly procedural and increasingly hollow. Elections are held, results are declared, and new mandates are announced, yet public trust continues to erode. When democratic systems fail to deliver justice, accountability, and basic economic security, they lose legitimacy. In that vacuum, the idea of constitutional order becomes abstract, and its collapse provokes resignation rather than resistance.
Africa’s current coup crisis is therefore not a rejection of democracy by ordinary citizens. It is a rejection of democratic forms emptied of democratic substance.
One of the most corrosive drivers of instability is Africa’s tolerance for perpetual rule. Leaders who manipulate constitutions, suppress institutions, and extend their stay in power for decades are rarely treated as threats to continental stability. Instead, they are normalized, excused, or quietly accommodated. This political indulgence has consequences. When leadership becomes permanent, institutions degrade, succession becomes dangerous, and the state becomes brittle.
The so called sit tight syndrome is not merely a domestic governance issue. It is a continental security risk. Africa cannot credibly condemn coups while allowing constitutional manipulation to flourish without consequence. If term limits matter, they must be defended with clarity and consistency, not vague diplomatic language.
Equally troubling is Africa’s habit of outsourcing accountability. Too often, meaningful consequences for corruption only arrive through foreign indictments or offshore asset seizures. This reality undermines African institutions and reinforces the perception that justice is external rather than home grown. A continent serious about sovereignty must be capable of disciplining its own leaders through strengthened peer review, enforcement mechanisms, and automatic consequences for abuse of power.
Sanctions, as currently practiced, do little to shift behaviour. Statements are issued, suspensions announced, and violations quietly accommodated over time. Deterrence does not emerge from rhetoric. It emerges from predictability and cost. When unconstitutional actions trigger clear, immediate, and escalating penalties, actors adjust accordingly. When they do not, instability becomes rational.
Africa’s unfinished integration project offers a powerful but underutilized solution. Intra African trade is not simply an economic aspiration. It is political leverage. A continent that trades with itself gains the ability to sanction itself meaningfully. Access to shared markets, transport corridors, energy networks, and financial systems must be tied to constitutional behaviour. Integration without standards weakens collective authority rather than strengthening it.
The military dimension of the crisis is often misunderstood. Most soldiers are not ideologues. They operate within political environments shaped by civilian leadership. When institutions fail, welfare deteriorates, and political interference intensifies, the temptation to intervene grows. Reforming civil military relations is therefore not about weakening the armed forces. It is about professionalising them within democratic boundaries and insulating them from political exploitation.
No discussion of Africa’s future is complete without addressing its youth. Africa’s demographic reality is irreversible. Young people disengage from democracy not because they oppose it, but because it has failed to offer them a stake. When governance appears extractive, exclusionary, and unresponsive, loyalty evaporates. Stability cannot be legislated in the absence of opportunity.
The uncomfortable truth is this. Coups will not disappear because the continent condemns them harder. They will recede only when governance failures become impossible to sustain. Africa does not suffer from a shortage of norms or institutions. It suffers from the absence of consequences.
Ending the cycle of coups requires something more unsettling than condemnation. It requires African leaders to accept limits on power, institutions to enforce rules consistently, and the African Union to transform moral authority into operational authority. Until that happens, coups will remain shocking only in their timing, never in their occurrence.
Viewpoints Africa will continue to analyse the structural governance failures driving political instability across the continent.
